Banca de DEFESA: Rafael Perez Marcos

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : Rafael Perez Marcos
DATE: 28/03/2024
TIME: 19:30
LOCAL: Vídeo Conferência
TITLE:

 Impact of electoral incentives on the adoption of measures to combat the Covid-19 pandemic and the impact of the pandemic on the results of the brazilian elections of 2020 and 2022.

KEY WORDS:

 Covid-19, pandemics, retrospective voting, electoral incentives, public policy.

PAGES: 150
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

 This thesis is composed of three independent chapters, albeit correlated, which analyze the adoption of pandemic control measures by Brazilian mayors and the impacts of the pandemic on the electoral performance of mayors in the 2020 elections and of Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 presidential elections. The first issue addressed concerns how the reelection incentive influenced the adoption of pandemic management policies by Brazilian mayors in 2020. The analysis, conducted through a regression discontinuity approach comparing the adoption and duration of pandemic control policies in municipalities that had elections in 2016 decided by a small margin of votes, indicates that mayors eligible for reelection were timider in adopting non-pharmacological measures to combat the pandemic. This result is observed especially in municipalities without local journalism presence and governed by mayors affiliated with right-wing parties, suggesting that the presence of local media and the mayor's party spectrum influence electoral incentives. The second issue analyzed evaluates the impacts of the pandemic on the electoral performance of mayors running for reelection in 2020. Using beta regression methodology to model the incumbent's percentage of votes and the probit model to outline the probability of election, it was identified that the number of Covid-19 cases was positively correlated with the mayor's votes and their probability of reelection, while deaths were negatively correlated. This result is consistent with an electorate that rewarded mayors who invested in identifying suspected cases of the disease and reinforced the municipal healthcare system, thus reducing its fatality rate. However, this effect was not uniform across all municipalities, but notably observed in municipalities governed by left-wing party-affiliated mayors. Finally, using the same econometric strategy, it is analyzed the impact of the pandemic on the performance of former President, Jair Bolsonaro, in the second round of the 2022 elections. The results indicate that the number of cases, municipal mobility, and Auxílio Emergencial (Emergency Aid) expenditures were positively correlated with Bolsonaro's votes, while deaths were negatively correlated. This result is consistent with a better performance of the then President as the lethality of the disease observed in the municipality decreased, and coherent with his own speech of downplaying the severity of the pandemic and disregarding the need for adopting social distancing measures.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - FERNANDO BOARATO MENEGUIN
Presidente - 6404931 - MARIA EDUARDA TANNURI PIANTO
Interno - 162391 - MAURICIO SOARES BUGARIN
Externo à Instituição - SERGIO RICARDO DE BRITO GADELHA - IDP
Interno - 4079124 - VANDER MENDES LUCAS