Banca de DEFESA: Débora Costa Ferreira

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : Débora Costa Ferreira
DATE: 26/02/2024
TIME: 19:30
LOCAL: Vídeo Conferência
TITLE:

Reelection and fiscal rules: Evolution of electoral incentives facing end-ofterm fiscal rules

KEY WORDS:

Term limits. Political budget cycles. Electoral accountability. Fiscal Rules. Fiscal federalism. Strategic transfers. Flypaper effect. Crative accounting.

PAGES: 159
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

This study examines the impact of reelection on the fiscal behavior of incumbents in terms of public spending, receipt of intergovernmental transfers, and strategies for deferring payments through prior-year expenses (DEA) and unsettled (RPNP) and settled (RPP) carryforwards. It compares expenditures, transfer revenues, and payment deferral mechanisms of mayors in their first and second terms during close elections from 2005 to 2020, utilizing a regression discontinuity approach. The findings suggest an increasing trend in the seasonality of political budget cycles over the period, with heightened concentration of revenues and expenditures in election years in municipalities with first-term mayors facing competitive elections since 2013, particularly in intergovernmental transfers and agreements, personnel expenses, other current expenses, and investments focused on education, sports, and leisure. In this context, the strategy of deferring payments is only advantageous for reelection when a mayor cannot maximize transfer revenues in election years, as was the case between 2005 and 2012. Therefore, this study underscores the need for (i) refinement of the Fiscal Responsibility Law and the Electoral Law to restore their original capacity to control public spending during electoral periods, (ii) addressing solutions for the current context of federal imbalances, and (iii) incorporating automatic triggers in the design of fiscal rules, providing flexibility for managers in times of constraint, to prevent "creative accounting."

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - MARCOS YAMADA NAKAGUMA - USP
Interno - 1196877 - BERNARDO PINHEIRO MACHADO MUELLER
Presidente - 162391 - MAURICIO SOARES BUGARIN
Interno - 1981130 - RAFAEL TERRA DE MENEZES
Externo à Instituição - SERGIO RICARDO DE BRITO GADELHA - ME