Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: Helder Lara Ferreira Filho

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : Helder Lara Ferreira Filho
DATE: 01/08/2022
TIME: 16:00
LOCAL: Vídeo Conferência
TITLE:

Public debt sustainability, fiscal rules and multipliers: theory, international experience and the Brazilian case (2000-2021)

KEY WORDS:

Public debt; debt path; fiscal sustainability; debt stationarity; fiscal series cointegration; fiscal reaction function.

PAGES: 62
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

The sustainability of public debt in Brazil has been questioned more intensively since 2012. This became even more frequent after COVID-19, when debt parameters rose sharply with lower revenues and higher expenses. Therefore, the first article seeks to verify the sustainability of public debt based on its dynamics over the years. Debt variation composition is also addressed. In addition, possible scenarios are considered based on current expectations of the important variables to the debt trajectory. The components of debt variation “r-g” and primary result are quite relevant in this dynamic, but stock-flow adjustments have proved to be crucial in the last 15 years, often being the main or the second most important determinant of debt variation. The trajectory of the General Government Gross Debt (DBGG) traced with economic agents’ expectations until March 2022 and certain hypotheses does not present to be unsustainable for the horizon until 2040. The second article sought to verify debt sustainability through three different approaches. The first is through the analysis of the stationarity of public debt under some metrics. The second is through a cointegration analysis between revenues and expenses to verify if these series move together. The third is based on the estimation of the Brazilian fiscal reaction function. Debt measures showed stationarity. The renenue and expense series were not cointegrated. The fiscal reaction function showed a significant response of the primary result to debt increases. According to these approaches, with the exception of the second one, which has certain limitations, public debt appears to be sustainable in a general perspective. However, it is not a very comfortable situation, as Brazil’s debt is larger than the ones of other emerging countries. Debt could be reduced by an increase in economic growth, by an increase in revenues, by a decrease in expenses, or by a combination of these options.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - LUIZ FERNANDO RODRIGUES DE PAULA - UFRJ
Interno - 2554533 - JALES DANTAS DA COSTA
Presidente - 6999314 - JOSE LUIS DA COSTA OREIRO