Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: Rafael Perez Marcos

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : Rafael Perez Marcos
DATE: 27/03/2023
TIME: 13:00
LOCAL: Vídeo Conferência
TITLE:

ESSAYS ON ELECTORAL INCENTIVES AND THE ADOPTION OF MEASURES TO COMBAT CODIV-19 PANDEMIC AND ON THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE RESULTS OF THE 2020 AND 2022 BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS

KEY WORDS:

retrospective voting, Covid-19, elections outcome, Brazil, Political behavior, public policy, restrictions

PAGES: 94
BIG AREA: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
AREA: Economia
SUMMARY:

This version of the thesis consists of three studies that relate Covid-19 to political economy. The studies are independent, and each focuses on a different analysis. The first study, still in the design phase, intends to revisit the article by Menezes Filho and Komatsu (2021) that assess the effect of the possibility of running for re-election on the adoption of measures to combat the Covid-19 pandemic by Brazilian mayors. The authors, without including the party spectrum of mayors, may have overlooked the impact of rhetoric in explaining the policies adopted by them. Thus, from a discontinuous regression design in elections defined by a small margin, a methodology similar to Menezes Filho and Komatsu (2021), but adding control for the mayor's party spectrum, the aim is to analyze the differences in the measures adopted to combat the Covid-19 pandemic by mayors who can run for re-election with those who cannot, comparing the adoption and duration of sanitary barriers, restrictive measures to the movement or agglomeration of people, social isolation measures and mandatory use of masks. In the second study, using beta regression, to model the incumbent's votes percentage, and using probit, to model the probability of reelection, it is evaluated the impact of Covid-19 cases and deaths, the level of mobility restrictions and the number of beneficiaries of Emergency Aid on the electoral results of the incumbent mayors in the first round of the 2020 elections. The results indicate that the number of cases was positively correlated with the incumbent mayor's votes and his likelihood of re-election, while deaths were negatively correlated. This outcome is consistent with an electorate that rewards mayors who invested in identifying suspected cases and strengthened the municipal health system, thus reducing the fatality of the disease. In turn, with regard to actions to mitigate the economic and social impact of the pandemic, the results suggest that greater number of Auxílio Emergencial beneficiaries resulted in greater votes for incumbent mayors, while a reduction in mobility was also rewarded in the elections. Finally, the third study, currently under development, focuses on the impact of Covid-19 and the measures adopted to combat it or mitigate its effects, in the 2nd round of the 2022 presidential elections. Preliminary results indicate that the number of cases was positively correlated with Bolsonaro's votes and his probability of obtaining a majority of votes in the municipality, while deaths were negatively correlated. Thus, taken together, the results suggest that a higher incidence of the disease in the municipality – measured by the number of cases – accompanied by lower lethality – measured by the number of deaths – earned support for Bolsonaro. In respect to the expansion of income transfer programs, the results indicate that municipalities with higher expenditure on Auxílio Emergencial had a higher vote in Bolsonaro, as well as municipalities with higher expenditure on Auxílio Brasil.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - FERNANDA LEDO MARCINIUK
Presidente - 6404931 - MARIA EDUARDA TANNURI PIANTO
Interno - 162391 - MAURICIO SOARES BUGARIN
Externo à Instituição - SERGIO RICARDO DE BRITO GADELHA - ME