Brazilian Manufacturing Industry: an analysis of sectoral dynamics between 2010 and 2020.
Industrial Dynamics; Processing Industry; Deindustrialization; InputOutput Matrix; Principal Component Analysis.
This dissertation aims to analyze and discuss what were the changes that occurred in the dynamics of the manufacturing industry in Brazil between the years 2010 and 2020. As a key sector of the economy, we sought to understand within the authors of Brazilian deindustrialization if Brazil fits into this process and whether it is homogeneous across sectors, and which would be the best indicators to be used. It is understood that traditional analysis indicators, such as the VTI/VPBI ratio, may be biased and not express the total movement of the sector. Therefore, in this work, an attempt was made to contribute to the debate with alternative forms to the theme of deindustrialization, contributing to the construction of indicators at sectoral levels. Thus, as a measure of performance analysis, a new industrial performance indicator relative to the sector will be used, built with a machine learning method of Principal Components Analysis (PCA), verifying the changes in the productive structure by the different levels of technological intensity and identifying whether there is a relative loss of any specific sector within the manufacturing industry. In addition to this tool, the instrument of the input-output Matrix product model (MIP) will be read, allowing a more complete analysis of the dynamics of the manufacturing industry from the creation of the Rasmussen-Hirschman indices of forward and backward chaining and the import coefficients of tradable inputs and final demand.