Banca de DEFESA: EMILLY CAROLINE COSTA SILVA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : EMILLY CAROLINE COSTA SILVA
DATE: 26/09/2024
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Defesa remota
TITLE:

Integrated systems analysis and challenges to the global energy transition

KEY WORDS:

Climate change; energy transition; system dynamics; energy scenarios; mitigation.

PAGES: 131
BIG AREA: Outra
AREA: Ciências Ambientais
SUMMARY:

This dissertation addresses the global energy transition and its impacts on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, based on the application of system dynamics models, such as the 2050 Calculators. The energy transition is essential for mitigating climate change and is directly linked to the historical evolution of the energy mix, characterized by a growing dependence on fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution. The Paris Agreement and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) represent the main international commitments to tackle this climate crisis. The general objective of this dissertation is to analyze energy transition scenarios at the global, regional and national levels, identifying risks and opportunities for an accelerated reduction in GHG emissions through integrated systems modeling. It also proposes recommendations for improving these models and for energy planning aimed at mitigating climate change. The method used was a literature review and international comparative analysis, based on the following dynamic models (2050 Calculators): SINAPSE (Brazil), IESS (India), GAIN Energy Calculator (United States), EUCalc (Europe) and Global Calculator (worldwide). Energy scenarios were simulated that integrate different decarbonization trajectories and energy technologies, considering socio-economic and political factors. The results show that although countries are making ambitious efforts in their NDCs, these are still insufficient to achieve the global goals of the Paris Agreement. Analysing the NDCs in the light of the models used shows that, without more ambitious policies, the concentration of GHGs will continue to increase, putting the global warming limits set by the IPCC at risk. The models also make it possible to identify the most critical sectors for deeper mitigation of the respective energy mixes. The European Union has made progress towards more ambitious targets, while countries such as Brazil and India face socio-economic challenges that make it difficult to meet their climate targets. The USA still presents a high per capita GHG emission, based on fossil fuels. Globally, there is a mismatch between the political discourse on carbon mitigation and the simulations. It is concluded that effective climate governance and international cooperation are essential to promote a just and effective energy transition. To accelerate decarbonization on a global scale, it is necessary to improve mitigation policies, strengthen financing mechanisms and align global actions with identified potentials through integrated energy system modelling.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 1494117 - ALEXANDRE BETINARDI STRAPASSON
Interno - 404142 - ANTONIO CESAR PINHO BRASIL JUNIOR
Interno - 3322563 - DIEGO PEREIRA LINDOSO
Externo à Instituição - JOAO ONOFRE PEREIRA PINTO - OUTROS