Banca de DEFESA: PAULA EMÍLIA OLIVEIRA PIMENTEL

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : PAULA EMÍLIA OLIVEIRA PIMENTEL
DATE: 25/10/2023
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável
TITLE:

SCENARIOS FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION IN BRAZIL 2040

KEY WORDS:

Renewable energy, scenarios, energy transition.

PAGES: 209
BIG AREA: Outra
AREA: Ciências Ambientais
SUMMARY:

The global energy matrix has gone through two major periods of change that accompanied the industrial revolutions. The first period refers to the change in the predominance of the use of firewood as a source of energy to natural coal, during the first industrial revolution (s. XVIII/XIX). The second period was marked by the transition from coal to oil, during the second industrial revolution (19th/20th century). In the 21st century, the global energy matrix is undergoing a third transition since 2008, the year in which oil reached its highest prices per barrel. The ongoing transition expands the share of lower cost, accessible and clean energies in greenhouse gas emissions. As countries expand their opportunities for access, security and energy efficiency, international organizations encourage, based on environmental sustainability actions, the movement that encourages the decarbonization of the global matrix. In this context, Brazil occupies a prominent and contradictory place, which represents a challenge, with more than 48% of its energy matrix composed of renewable energies, at the same time that it is the ninth largest oil producer in the world and with great potential for expansion with the pre-salt fields. On the other hand, it has great potential to expand the production of clean energy, through sources: wind, solar, biofuels, green hydrogen and others. The challenge for Brazil lies in how to expand the share of renewable energies in a country rich in fossil fuels, as well as in maintaining exports of these commodities. This work was concerned with analyzing which path Brazil can follow, based on the construction of scenarios for the 2040 horizon. Four scenarios were constructed based on the vision of specialists in the energy sector, and can be reflection narratives for planners and decision makers for a better competitive insertion of organizations and the country in the current energy transition. The scenarios involve uncertainties about the speed of the transition and the impact of economic development and technological innovations. For Brazil, the price of oil, the cost of new energy, regulation, public policies and pressure for environmental sustainability are the key factors to be monitored in the country. The result of the work points to a gradual transition in Brazil until 2040.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - MARIA AMÉLIA RODRIGUEZ DA SILVA ENRIQUEZ - UFPA
Interno - 1494117 - ALEXANDRE BETINARDI STRAPASSON
Presidente - ***.344.311-** - ELIMAR PINHEIRO DO NASCIMENTO - Paris V
Externa à Instituição - Elaine Coutinho Marcial - UCB
Externa ao Programa - 2336156 - MARIA AMELIA DE PAULA DIAS - null