Socio-environmental vulnerability to climate change in Sustainable Use Conservation Units in the Amazon: a case study in Lower Tapajós, Pará.
Climate Change, Vulnerability, Adaptation, Amazon, Riverines and Conservation Units.
The general objective of this research was to evaluate the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the riverine population in relation to climate change in the Amazon, based on local perception; and investigate whether factors such as risk perception, social capital, and the management instruments of Federal Conservation Units contribute to coping with it. This work mobilized qualitative and quantitative methods, combining primary and secondary data related to two case studies: Tapajós National Forest (FNT) and Tapajós-Arapiuns Extractive Reserve (RTA), in the lower Tapajós river, state of Pará. Despite being a relatively recent phenomenon, the riverine populations of the FNT and RTA demonstrated that they noticed changes in relation to the main climatic variables related to their way of life in the Amazon. There was a perception of a shorter “Summer”- starting later, greater accumulated annual rainfall, and floods with greater duration and intensity. Among the events considered most extreme, large forest fires proved to be the most worrying for the population. Regarding impacts on production systems, the change (decrease) in manioc productivity in recent years was related to changes in the rainfall regime and the length of the seasons. As for fishing, changes in productivity (decrease) were more related to overfishing and disregard for local regulations. However, these perceptions were not sufficient to manifest adaptive responses consistently in the region. Even though there are no marked differences between the perception of risk regarding environmental variables, extreme events, or in relation to changes related to family farming and fishing between residents of the two UCs; there were differences in relation to adaptive responses to productive activities, and to management instruments. No causal condition investigated was sufficient to manifest adaptive responses, by itself. Risk perception has not been ruled out as a necessary condition for the manifestation of adaptive responses. Social capital and local governance were discarded as necessary conditions, perhaps deserving a combined analysis with other variables to assess their real influence in relation to adaptation. Considering the policies already developed in relation to sustainable use conservation units, and the scope for implementing others in the context of UC governance, they reaffirm their leading role in combating the effects of climate change.