Banca de DEFESA: MORENO SOUTO SANTIAGO

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : MORENO SOUTO SANTIAGO
DATE: 11/09/2024
TIME: 10:00
LOCAL: Video Conferência
TITLE:

Contractual Non-Performance in the Brazilian Public Sector: Supplier (Dis)Trust Index for Risk Management in Procurements Governed by the General Procurement Law

KEY WORDS:

contractual default; risk management; public contracts; insolvency prediction; innovation.

PAGES: 185
BIG AREA: Outra
AREA: Multidisciplinar
SUMMARY:

This study addresses the issue of contractual default in the Brazilian public sector, specifically in the context of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ). The scientific and social relevance of the topic is tied to the need for innovation and effective governance in public procurement, considering the challenges posed by Law 14.133/2021. The main objective is to identify how economic and financial information can anticipate the risk of contractual default through the Supplier (Dis)Trust Index (IDF). The research employs a statistical model based on logistic regression, analyzing contract data from the STJ between 2018 and 2023. The theoretical framework includes studies on public procurement, evidence-based management, and predictive models of insolvency. The primary finding is that the IDF, by using a combination of economic, financial, and legal variables, provides a prediction of default with high sensitivity and overall accuracy. The main technical-technological product is an automated statistical analysis script in Stata® software, which allows the practical application of the predictive model in other public institutions. It is concluded that the IDF is an effective tool for risk management in public contracts, recommended for use during the contract execution phase rather than as a qualification criterion.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo ao Programa - 2478208 - ABIMAEL DE JESUS BARROS COSTA - nullPresidente - 2476622 - BEATRIZ FATIMA MORGAN
Externo à Instituição - JESUSMAR XIMENES DE ANDRADE - UFPI
Externo à Instituição - RICARDO ROCHA DE AZEVEDO - USP