PROPOSAL OF A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR RISK ANALYSIS IN AVSEC REGULATION
Aviation security, Risk-based regulation, Risk assessment, AVSEC
As a response to the occurrence of attacks against Aviation Security - AVSEC, during the last decades several security measures have been introduced to mitigate identified threats. Considering that the implementation of such measures has several impacts on air operations, the absence of an AVSEC regulation structure that supports the proposition of these measures is identified. This absence represents a technical and academic gap, which reduces regulatory systematization and transparency, compromises the quality of the regulation related to the topic, and represents a challenge for the development of studies that can guide the implementation of more consistent and proportional regulations related to domestic operations specificities. This work adapts an AVSEC risk-based model (AVSEC Human Factor Management - HFM-AVSEC Matrix) to enable analysis and proposition of AVSEC measures. It is discussed that this model be defined in four steps: 1) definition of the context, expert panel and process mapping, 2) identification and grouping of security measures, identification of threat scenarios and their subsequent linking, 3 ) threat assessment based on the probability and impact of the identified threat scenarios occurrence, and 4) response to the assessment carried out with a list of security measures to address the identified level of threat. Among the main results of this study, the adaptation of the HFM-AVSEC Matrix to a practical model focused on the regulatory approach stands out. This model allows the evaluation of security measures and can be applied to different contexts and regulations related to the topic, in addition to adopting a preventive regulatory approach instead of a reactive one. Another relevant result is the validation of the model's criteria by an expert panel from entities responsible for AVSEC risk assessment. The study contributes to the literature on civil aviation security and risk-based regulation, offering an approach applicable to the Brazilian reality, with the potential to be adapted to other contexts.