Banca de DEFESA: Alan de Oliveira Lopes

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : Alan de Oliveira Lopes
DATE: 30/01/2023
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Apresentação remota (Microsoft Teams)
TITLE:

A Methodology to analyze the risk in delaying highway works: a case study in hirings by the Brazilian National Department of Infrastructure

KEY WORDS:

delaying highway works; highway; risk analysis; corruption

PAGES: 282
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia de Transportes
SUMMARY:

Risk analysis in project management is one of the recommended techniques to mitigate difficulties in the implementation of road infrastructures. Most applications are based on methods that use experts opinion as their source of data. However, usually the stakeholders have antagonistic interests, which leads to the risk of bias in the results. In this context, this research proposes to analyze the risk of delay in the execution of public procurements for roads construction and restoration based on objective data in the bidding stage of the project. The proposed predictive model of the Effective Execution Deadline - EED aimed to mitigate the risk of the “optimism paradox” through the application of negative binomial regression. Independent quantitative and qualitative variables were modeled, categorized into economic, political, contracted object and contracting agency. Through a Case Study applied to the Brazil`s National Department of Transport Infrastructure - DNIT, with a sample of 158 contracts executed between the years 1993 to 2017, a generalized linear model was obtained with a Pseudo R2 adjustment coefficient of 74%.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Externa à Instituição - SANDRA ODA - UFRJ
Interno - 2487190 - ALAN RICARDO DA SILVA
Interno - 623.680.953-49 - FRANCISCO GILDEMIR FERREIRA DA SILVA - UFC
Externo à Instituição - JOSÉ LEOMAR FERNANDES JÚNIOR - USP
Presidente - 2492216 - MICHELLE ANDRADE