Determinants of Urban Policy Diffusion in Brazil
Diffusion; public policies; urban policies; ZEIS; Outorga Onerosa
The diffusion of public policies is a growing field of Political Science in Brazil. Research
that aims to identify why and how public policies diffuse in federative contexts helps to
understand issues from political behavior and the role of institutions to broader
processes of multiple agendas, formulation and adoption of public policies. This thesis
innovates and contributes to the effort by explaining why two urban policy instruments
- the Outorga Onerosa do Direito de Construir and the Zonas Especiais de Interesse
Social - have spread among Brazilian municipalities. With a multi-method research
design, we applied an event history analysis model (Cox’s proportional hazards
regression) to estimate the hazard rate for policy adoption among 5570 cities. We also
applied a comparative technique to understand the impact of federal institutions over
both diffusion processes. Hypotheses about the influence of electoral dynamics, political
parties, state capacities, socioeconomic conditions just as geographical proximity,
neighborhood and national interaction were tested. We find evidence that political
competition, state capacities and regions drive the urban policy diffusion in local
governments in Brazil.