Banca de DEFESA: Josué Miguel de Oliveira

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : Josué Miguel de Oliveira
DATE: 12/05/2023
TIME: 10:00
LOCAL: Plataforma teams
TITLE:

"Growth of the Dentistry workforce and demand for professional qualification offers in the UNA-SUS System: a time series study"

KEY WORDS:

"Time Series. Forecasting. Dental Staff.Continuing Education"

PAGES: 100
BIG AREA: Ciências da Saúde
AREA: Odontologia
SUMMARY:

"Introduction:Brazilian Dentistry is recognized as the largest in the world in terms of number of professionals. To reach this level, dentistry courses were opened for the conception of new dentists, reaching around 20% of the world's share. Together, Permanent HealthEducation was developed with the aim of qualifying SUS health professionals, in this context the Open University of SUS (UNA-SUS) emerges as a promoter of distance education courses for the qualification of SUS professionals.
Objectives:The objective of this work is to study the trend towards an increase in the number of dentistry professionals caused by the increase in the number of courses offered for this profession (1980 to 2019), and the increase in registrations at UNA-SUS by Dental Surgeons (2010 to2019), and draw a predictive scenario of these variables for the year 2025 at national and regional level. Methodology:A Time Series (ST) study was carried out with data from the CFO, e-MEC and the Monitoring Panel of the Open University of SUS. The forecast for the coming years was performed using the GAM model for predicting records in the CFO and new courses in dentistry, and the Holt-Winters method for predicting records in the UNA-SUS. The Simple Linear Regression model was used to investigate trends, given the relationship between the number of records and the number of dentistry courses, and the number of records in the CFO given the number of admissions to the UNA-SUS, using the p-value for hypothesis testing. The analyzes were carried out in 6 scenarios, the first being at the national level and the other 5 by region.Results:In 1980 there were 66 dentistry courses in Brazil. From 1980 to 2019, 427 dentistry courses were opened, with the greatest increase in the Southeast and Northeast regions, with 31.14% (n=133) and 29.03% (n=124). It is estimated, for 2025, that in the southeast region there will be 18,318 (95%CI 15,509-21,126) new DCs, followed by the northeast region with 8,179 (95%CI, 7,374-8,984). In Brazil, from 2013 to 2019, each dentistrycourse was responsible for training 165 dentists (p<0.001, R2 96%) annually, with a higher incidence in the southeast region with 252 dentists (p<0.001, R2 88%). In all regions the H0 were rejected. In this period of 2010-2019, there were 59,790 admissions, by CDs, in search of professional qualification in the UNA-SUS system. It is estimated that there will be 22,649 (95%CI 3,621-41,677) new registrations of CDs at UNA-SUS in 2025. It was found that there is a relationship between the number of registrations at the CFO and the number of admissions at UNA-SUS (p<0.001, R2 93%). Conclusion:From the year 2000 onwards, most STs leave the sideways trend state, that is, without real growth for growth in an uptrend, while from 2015 they reach an upward trend with no resistance or signs of laterality. None of the observed time series shows a stabilization or downward trend for the next few years, so that a high upward trend was seen for all scenarios."

BANKING MEMBERS:
Interna - 1505145 - EMILIA CARVALHO LEITAO BIATO
Presidente - 1377820 - GILBERTO ALFREDO PUCCA JUNIOR
Externa à Instituição - MARTA ARTEMÍSIA ABEL MAPENGO DOMINGOS
Externo à Instituição - MORENO MAGALHÃES DE SOUZA RODRIGUES - FIOCRUZ