Banca de DEFESA: BRENO DE ALMEIDA MENEZES

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : BRENO DE ALMEIDA MENEZES
DATE: 13/09/2024
TIME: 08:30
LOCAL: Sala de Defesas do ENE
TITLE:

Análise de risco da viabilidade técnico-econômica de uma usina híbrida composta por uma usina heliotérmica com armazenamento térmico e por uma usina fotovoltaica com armazenamento por baterias

KEY WORDS:

não informado.

PAGES: 138
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia Elétrica
SUBÁREA: Sistemas Elétricos de Potência
SPECIALTY: Medição, Controle, Correção e Proteção de Sistemas Elétricos de Potência
SUMMARY:

The continuous increase in electricity consumption, coupled with growing concerns about energy security and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, justifies the complexity and challenge of the current national and global scenario. In this context, renewable energy technologies such as Photovoltaic Solar (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) are characterized as sustainable and environmentally friendly solutions to meet the growing demand for energy, both in Brazil and globally. Considering these factors, the idea for this study emerged, aiming to conduct a risk analysis of investments in electricity generation through CSP + PV hybrid plants, which utilize: i) solar tower topology for CSP; ii) PV plant; and iii) thermal storage and battery systems. For each plant, a risk analysis methodology will be developed that: i) employs stochastic models for generating synthetic series of the random variables that influence energy production and economic viability; ii) models the physical system that characterizes its operation; and iii) uses the cash flow model for the economic viability analysis of the investment. The economic viability analysis of the hybrid plant is based on the discounted cash flow (FCD) model for the firm (FCLE) and for the shareholders (FCLA). It will be carried out considering that the electricity produced will be sold in the Regulated Contracting Environment (ACR). Additionally, this study considers the legislative and tax particularities associated with selling energy in the ACR. The results provide information on the generation potential and the economic viability indicators of the investment. In the initial scenario proposed for the hybrid plant, the mentioned economic indicators pointed to economic infeasibility, regardless of the cash flow model adopted. Given this situation, and with the objective of evaluating how the main parameters affect economic viability, a univariate sensitivity analysis was performed for the net present value for FCLE and FCLA of the following parameters: electricity sale price in the ACR, CAPEX, exchange rate, minimum attractive rate, and annual energy contract amount. Based on the sensitivity analysis results, an optimistic context for the installation of the hybrid plant in Bom Jesus da Lapa was proposed. In this hypothesis, the same parameters varied in the univariate sensitivity analysis are modified to more positive values. In this case, all the mentioned economic indicators point to economic feasibility and a zero probability of investment non-return, regardless of the cash flow model adopted. It is worth noting that the models adopted are specific to Brazil but can be adapted to other countries. Therefore, this study will result in an decision-making tool, especially in the context of renewable energy and hybrid plants, which are still emerging in Brazil.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - 2221886 - ANESIO DE LELES FERREIRA FILHO
Externo à Instituição - DAYWES PINHEIRO NETO - IFG
Interno - 1640512 - KLEBER MELO E SILVA
Externo ao Programa - 2245668 - MARIO BENJAMIM BAPTISTA DE SIQUEIRA - null