How does criminal governance affect elections? Electoral behavior in Rio de Janeiro's municipal elections
criminal governance; electoral behavior; subnational politics; municipal elections
In this research project, I investigate the impact of criminal governance on voting behavior in Rio de Janeiro's municipal elections, focusing on the distinction between the effects of paramilitary groups (milicias) and criminal factions. Building on the empirical and theoretical basis provided by Trudeau (2022), who examines how criminal governance influences voting, I propose to explore in greater depth the variations in electoral participation, vote concentration, the number of candidates voted for and votes for the legend in areas controlled by different types of criminals. To achieve these objectives, I work with a methodology that integrates quantitative panel analysis of municipal elections from 2008 to 2024 and semi-structured interviews. I propose a multiple linear regression model. Through this approach, I seek to identify specific nuances in the electoral control mechanisms exercised by militias and factions, comparing their strategies and influences.