Evaluation of the energy and emissions impacts of vehicles in the Brazilian scenario of energy transition and the use of use
Electric vehicles, life cycle assessment, greenhouse gas emissions, energy
transition, bioethanol.
The transportation sector stands out on the world stage with a significant share of greenhouse gas emissions, currently around 25% of global emissions. In the global context of energy transition associated with changes in the matrix towards renewable sources, the electrification of mobility appears to be one of the alternatives for mitigating the impacts of global warming. In Brazil, bioethanol is widely used in flex-fuel vehicles and accounts for around 35% of the total primary energy of light vehicles. In addition, the country's electricity generation mix comprises around 83% renewable sources, made up basically of hydroelectric, wind and biomass sources, and it is reasonable to consider the electrification of the transportation sector as one of the alternatives towards sustainability. This study aims to contribute to the planning of public policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by analyzing the global warming potential related to the life cycle of light passenger vehicles in the scenario of the Brazilian electricity matrix and the use of biofuels, as well as by projecting scenarios for the Brazilian fleet and the inclusion of electric and hybrid vehicles in the long term. To this end, statistical methodologies applied to historical data series and regression algorithms were used to estimate the fleet, in addition to the life cycle assessment approach applied to the manufacture and use of vehicles and the production of fuels in order to estimate the potential for global warming. The results of the comparative analysis showed that vehicles with internal combustion engines and hybrids fueled by bioethanol had the lowest emissions per kilometer driven compared to battery electric vehicles. In the long term, the scenario with a greater share of bioethanol proved to be more favorable for reducing emissions, with annual emissions of 37 MtCO2eq in 2050 compared to 74 MtCO2eq in 2020, which would mean an annual reduction in emissions of around 50%. In general, the results indicate that investments aimed at expanding the use of bioethanol in hybrid vehicles with flex-fuel technologies are a promising path towards the energy transition to renewable sources, without ruling out measures to encourage the participation of purely electric vehicles, given the characteristics of the renewable electricity generation matrix in the Brazilian long-term scenario.