Banca de DEFESA: MANOEL FERNANDO DOS REIS

Analyzing the COVID-19 Pandemic Through the SIR and SECIAR Models

COVID-19, Global dynamics, Routh-Hurwitz criterion, M-matrices, SIR model, SECIAR model

The present thesis aims to answer the following questions. Even in a scenario where an effective vaccine is not developed in the coming years, does the strategy of social isolation and repeated reopening reduce the number of deaths? And why did SARS (2002) and MERS (2012) not cause as many problems as the COVID-19 pandemic? We use ideas from control theory and the classic SIR model to answer the first question, while to answer the second question, it is necessary to introduce an extension of this model, which we call SECIAR, and describe its global dynamics.